We’re Getting Mixed Signals Around Bitcoin’s Price
There are currently two very different reads on how the price of Bitcoin is doing, depending on what you’re reading and the timespan on which you analyze its price.
In investing, there are always several perspectives that are conflicting on a certain asset. With fundamental and technical analysis often indicating separate takes, coming to a smart conclusion isn’t always easy. That’s why it’s important to think about what scale these things will affect the asset on. Technical could apply in the short-term, and fundamental could be a longer time horizon before it plays out.
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance
On the positive side, you have the fact that the current volume-weighted average price of Bitcoin for 2020 is above $9,000. This is higher than the volume-weighted averages for any other year. The 2017 and 2018 figures were $6,125 and $7,657, respectively. These are far lower than where we’re at now, so even if Bitcoin performed flat on the year, that would represent a significant increase in price.
However, none of us are expecting the price to stay flat. For months now, analysts have been calling for a breakaway in price. With Bitcoin finally breaking through the $10k psychological barrier a few weeks ago, it seems like this could be it. But there are also some technical indicators that show resistance where they used to show support. In the short-term, this could make the next month or so a good buying opportunity for those interested.
Is the Coronavirus Going to Affect Bitcoin?
Coronavirus could go either way for Bitcoin investors. There are multiple arguments about how it will affect the coin. First, you have the idea that China’s economy and supply chains will get hurt and this might affect Bitcoin mining, which would lower the price. But there’s also the chance that fears in the markets will result in everything being sold to cash.
But as we’re seeing an economic slowdown, central banks are considering more quantitative easing to prop up the economy in its time of need. This will devalue whatever currencies are affected, and push more money into Bitcoin, a highly deflationary asset.
Also possible is the idea that Coronavirus’s effect on the economy will be uncorrelated to Bitcoin’s performance and it’s all noise. Because above all else, there’s also the upcoming halvening, and we all know what that entails for Bitcoin!